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User blog:Hurricane Layten/Potential Adrian a concern and a possible south Atlantic system also on the radar
Well, I'm sure we've all being seeing the runs of teh moels that are showing a pre season Hurricane Adrian making landfall, and the possible south Atlantic subtropical cyclone that could form. I'll start with the most significant of the two first. Adrian is expected to develop out of the upcoming Gap Wind event, which will direct a disturbance towards the central American coast, which could become a tropical depression in about 3-4 days if the model runs are correct. If this does happen, Adrian will be setting quite a few records, by breaking the earliest storm, Aletta in 2014's record of May 14th for the earliest forming eastern Pacific tropical cyclone. After this, it gets even better. The tropical cyclone is left meandering for several days off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by the GFS, before eventually making landfall, and crossing out into the Caribbean Sea as a tropical depression. From here, whilst it is very far out to be certain for sure, the GFS takes Adrian (or Bret if the system loses it's low level circulation over land), north towards the coast of Cuba, where it makes landfall as a high end tropical storm, before heading over the Bahamas and out into the Atlantic, where it is forecast to dissipate towards the end of the run. The Euro, on the other hand, takes Adrian to hurricane status, before taking a hard turn to the north and making landfall in Mexico towards the end of its run. From here, they take the low inland, where it is forecast to dissipate, or move out into the Bay of Campeche as a remnant low, where it could have the potential for a regeneration. Either way, if any of these scenarios come true, Adrian is going to be a record breaker, there's no doubt about it. Also, if Adrian loses it's low level circulation over central America but regenerates in the Caribbean, it will set a new record for the earliest 2nd nameable storm in Atlantic history, breaking Beryl's record in 2012 by several days, as well as also making the earliest landfalls potentially as well. Now, onto the south Atlantic system. The Euro develops what could easily be a subtropical depression in about 2 days time, before taking it southeast and having it absorbed by a developing frontal system the next day. This would mark one of the latest dates for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to develop in this basin. The GFS is also in agreement with this scenario, but shows a weaker system that lasts a shorter amount of time, before reaching the same fate suggested by the Euro. Either way, I shall be watching on with a vested interest, as it will be particularly interesting to see what the potential Adrian does if it does indeed develop like models are suggesting, and I will post more if it does happen. Category:Blog posts